Playoff Probabilities Report
Results are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of
season, including the play-in round.
See more details about the results. We also use these simulations to
project the draft order and lottery winners.
Projected Standings
Seed | Pre Play-In | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Eastern Conference | W | L | W/L% | SOS | rSOS | SRS | Current | Remain | Best | Worst | Playoffs | Division | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Win Conf | Win Finals | ||
1 | Miami Heat | 57.3 | 24.7 | .698 | 1.07 | -0.03 | 18.07 | 5-1 | 52-24 | 70-12 | 41-41 | 100.0% | 95.8% | 80.0 | 13.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 47.3% | 37.6% | ||||
2 | Chicago Bulls | 50.7 | 31.3 | .618 | -0.23 | 0.51 | 8.49 | 6-1 | 45-30 | 65-17 | 33-49 | 96.4% | 88.9% | 10.1 | 33.0 | 20.4 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 13.7% | 8.4% | ||
3 | Philadelphia 76ers | 47.6 | 34.4 | .580 | -2.13 | 0.83 | 6.44 | 5-2 | 43-32 | 62-20 | 28-54 | 86.9% | 30.8% | 2.5 | 12.7 | 15.1 | 14.8 | 13.8 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 8.3% | 4.8% | ||
4 | New York Knicks | 46.9 | 35.1 | .572 | 0.52 | 0.56 | 5.38 | 5-2 | 42-33 | 63-19 | 31-51 | 82.6% | 25.9% | 2.2 | 10.4 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 13.9 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 6.5% | 3.7% | ||
5 | Toronto Raptors | 47.0 | 35.0 | .574 | 1.25 | 0.72 | 5.88 | 5-3 | 42-32 | 64-18 | 32-50 | 84.9% | 29.0% | 2.0 | 11.0 | 14.4 | 14.3 | 13.0 | 11.9 | 10.5 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 8.2% | 4.6% | ||
6 | Charlotte Hornets | 46.0 | 36.0 | .560 | 1.92 | 0.48 | 4.42 | 5-3 | 41-33 | 62-20 | 30-52 | 77.6% | 2.1% | 1.1 | 6.4 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 4.5% | 2.5% | ||
7 | Washington Wizards | 45.5 | 36.5 | .555 | 1.11 | 0.49 | 3.68 | 5-2 | 41-34 | 61-21 | 30-52 | 74.0% | 2.0% | 1.0 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 11.9 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 4.0% | 2.1% | ||
8 | Brooklyn Nets | 45.0 | 37.0 | .549 | 4.13 | 0.25 | 4.13 | 4-3 | 41-34 | 60-22 | 30-52 | 70.0% | 14.1% | 0.7 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 11.9 | 12.4 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 11.3 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 3.9% | 1.9% | ||
9 | Indiana Pacers | 42.0 | 40.0 | .512 | 5.05 | 0.04 | 3.05 | 2-6 | 40-34 | 57-25 | 25-57 | 42.7% | 6.5% | 0.2 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 13.7 | 13.9 | 2.0% | 1.0% | ||
10 | Atlanta Hawks | 40.9 | 41.1 | .498 | -0.98 | 1.09 | 0.31 | 4-3 | 37-38 | 59-23 | 25-57 | 31.6% | 0.2% | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 14.1 | 0.6% | 0.3% | ||
11 | Milwaukee Bucks | 40.3 | 41.7 | .491 | 3.87 | 0.47 | 0.30 | 3-4 | 37-38 | 60-22 | 24-58 | 28.8% | 3.2% | 0.4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 11.7 | 14.1 | 0.7% | 0.3% | |||
12 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 38.5 | 43.5 | .470 | -0.62 | 1.03 | -1.75 | 4-4 | 35-39 | 53-29 | 23-59 | 15.7% | 1.3% | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 0.3% | 0.1% | |||
13 | Boston Celtics | 36.2 | 45.8 | .441 | 2.91 | 0.68 | -2.95 | 2-5 | 34-41 | 54-28 | 16-66 | 5.9% | 0.1% | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 0.1% | |||||
14 | Orlando Magic | 34.0 | 48.0 | .415 | 3.26 | 0.91 | -4.37 | 2-6 | 32-42 | 51-31 | 19-63 | 2.2% | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 3.6 | |||||||||
15 | Detroit Pistons | 32.3 | 49.7 | .394 | 3.91 | 0.91 | -7.09 | 1-5 | 31-45 | 49-33 | 18-64 | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
Seed | Pre Play-In | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Western Conference | W | L | W/L% | SOS | rSOS | SRS | Current | Remain | Best | Worst | Playoffs | Division | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Win Conf | Win Finals | ||
1 | Utah Jazz | 52.4 | 29.6 | .639 | -3.08 | -1.50 | 9.76 | 5-1 | 47-29 | 68-14 | 37-45 | 100.0% | 90.7% | 82.3 | 11.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 45.4% | 20.0% | |||||
2 | Golden State Warriors | 44.6 | 37.4 | .544 | -6.39 | -0.56 | 1.45 | 5-1 | 40-36 | 62-20 | 30-52 | 93.8% | 69.9% | 7.1 | 28.4 | 20.5 | 13.6 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 12.5% | 3.4% | ||
3 | Denver Nuggets | 43.1 | 38.9 | .526 | -1.72 | -0.89 | 0.85 | 4-3 | 39-36 | 60-22 | 24-58 | 88.4% | 4.8% | 3.6 | 16.9 | 17.6 | 15.5 | 12.6 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 10.1% | 2.5% | ||
4 | Portland Trail Blazers | 42.3 | 39.7 | .516 | -0.95 | -1.15 | 0.91 | 3-4 | 39-36 | 58-24 | 27-55 | 84.4% | 4.0% | 2.9 | 13.8 | 14.8 | 14.1 | 13.0 | 10.7 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 9.7% | 2.5% | ||
5 | Memphis Grizzlies | 41.7 | 40.3 | .509 | 1.75 | -1.30 | -1.10 | 4-3 | 38-37 | 58-24 | 25-57 | 80.4% | 56.2% | 2.0 | 12.5 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 12.0 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 6.8% | 1.5% | ||
6 | San Antonio Spurs | 38.9 | 43.1 | .474 | -1.50 | -1.12 | -1.93 | 2-5 | 37-38 | 54-28 | 25-57 | 58.1% | 24.4% | 0.5 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 3.8% | 0.7% | ||
7 | Sacramento Kings | 38.7 | 43.3 | .472 | -1.06 | -0.99 | -3.89 | 3-3 | 36-40 | 57-25 | 23-59 | 55.7% | 10.3% | 0.5 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 2.6% | 0.5% | ||
8 | Los Angeles Lakers | 37.9 | 44.1 | .462 | -4.88 | -0.68 | -4.31 | 4-3 | 34-41 | 54-28 | 23-59 | 46.9% | 7.3% | 0.3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 1.8% | 0.4% | ||
9 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 37.8 | 44.2 | .461 | -4.22 | -0.51 | -4.06 | 3-3 | 35-41 | 53-29 | 21-61 | 47.1% | 0.5% | 0.3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 2.0% | 0.4% | ||
10 | Los Angeles Clippers | 38.1 | 43.9 | .465 | -2.11 | -0.83 | -2.94 | 2-4 | 36-40 | 54-28 | 24-58 | 50.3% | 8.6% | 0.2 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 10.2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 10.4 | 2.7% | 0.5% | ||
11 | Dallas Mavericks | 37.4 | 44.6 | .456 | -1.66 | -0.78 | -6.32 | 4-2 | 33-43 | 54-28 | 23-59 | 42.0% | 14.9% | 0.2 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 1.0% | 0.2% | ||
12 | Phoenix Suns | 36.1 | 45.9 | .440 | -1.64 | -0.76 | -6.64 | 2-3 | 34-43 | 53-29 | 21-61 | 31.7% | 3.9% | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 1.0% | 0.2% | ||
13 | New Orleans Pelicans | 34.2 | 47.8 | .417 | 1.23 | -1.00 | -5.48 | 1-6 | 33-42 | 52-30 | 20-62 | 18.3% | 4.2% | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 0.7% | 0.1% | |||
14 | Houston Rockets | 29.9 | 52.1 | .364 | -3.49 | -0.44 | -11.15 | 1-5 | 29-47 | 46-36 | 15-67 | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.9 | |||||||
15 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 26.9 | 55.1 | .328 | 0.10 | -0.59 | -13.05 | 1-6 | 26-49 | 42-40 | 13-69 | 0.5% | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
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