Playoff Probabilities Report

Results are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of season, including the play-in round.

See more details about the results. We also use these simulations to project the draft order and lottery winners.

Projected Standings

Projected Standings Table
														Seed									Pre Play-In
Rk	Eastern Conference	W	L	W/L%	SOS	rSOS	SRS	Current	Remain	Best	Worst	Playoffs	Division	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8		7	8	9	10		Win Conf	Win Finals
1	Miami Heat	57.3	24.7	.698	1.07	-0.03	18.07	5-1	52-24	70-12	41-41	100.0%	95.8%	80.0	13.5	4.0	1.4	0.6	0.3	0.2	0.1		0.2	0.1				47.3%	37.6%
2	Chicago Bulls	50.7	31.3	.618	-0.23	0.51	8.49	6-1	45-30	65-17	33-49	96.4%	88.9%	10.1	33.0	20.4	13.0	8.4	5.6	3.4	2.5		3.8	2.5	1.7	0.8		13.7%	8.4%
3	Philadelphia 76ers	47.6	34.4	.580	-2.13	0.83	6.44	5-2	43-32	62-20	28-54	86.9%	30.8%	2.5	12.7	15.1	14.8	13.8	12.1	8.9	7.0		9.5	7.1	5.2	3.6		8.3%	4.8%
4	New York Knicks	46.9	35.1	.572	0.52	0.56	5.38	5-2	42-33	63-19	31-51	82.6%	25.9%	2.2	10.4	13.6	13.3	13.9	11.7	9.4	8.1		10.2	8.3	7.0	4.4		6.5%	3.7%
5	Toronto Raptors	47.0	35.0	.574	1.25	0.72	5.88	5-3	42-32	64-18	32-50	84.9%	29.0%	2.0	11.0	14.4	14.3	13.0	11.9	10.5	7.9		10.4	8.4	6.0	4.2		8.2%	4.6%
6	Charlotte Hornets	46.0	36.0	.560	1.92	0.48	4.42	5-3	41-33	62-20	30-52	77.6%	2.1%	1.1	6.4	10.9	12.3	13.0	13.0	11.3	9.5		11.8	10.2	8.1	5.6		4.5%	2.5%
7	Washington Wizards	45.5	36.5	.555	1.11	0.49	3.68	5-2	41-34	61-21	30-52	74.0%	2.0%	1.0	5.9	8.7	11.1	12.2	12.8	11.9	10.4		12.4	11.0	8.9	6.9		4.0%	2.1%
8	Brooklyn Nets	45.0	37.0	.549	4.13	0.25	4.13	4-3	41-34	60-22	30-52	70.0%	14.1%	0.7	5.0	7.4	10.1	11.1	11.9	12.4	11.3		12.6	11.3	10.2	8.2		3.9%	1.9%

9	Indiana Pacers	42.0	40.0	.512	5.05	0.04	3.05	2-6	40-34	57-25	25-57	42.7%	6.5%	0.2	1.0	2.6	4.1	5.2	6.7	10.4	12.6		9.3	12.1	13.7	13.9		2.0%	1.0%
10	Atlanta Hawks	40.9	41.1	.498	-0.98	1.09	0.31	4-3	37-38	59-23	25-57	31.6%	0.2%	0.1	0.5	1.4	2.6	3.7	5.5	7.8	10.1		7.3	10.0	12.6	14.1		0.6%	0.3%
11	Milwaukee Bucks	40.3	41.7	.491	3.87	0.47	0.30	3-4	37-38	60-22	24-58	28.8%	3.2%		0.4	1.2	2.0	3.5	4.8	7.3	9.6		6.9	8.8	11.7	14.1		0.7%	0.3%
12	Cleveland Cavaliers	38.5	43.5	.470	-0.62	1.03	-1.75	4-4	35-39	53-29	23-59	15.7%	1.3%		0.2	0.3	0.9	1.3	2.4	4.2	6.4		3.7	6.1	8.2	11.6		0.3%	0.1%
13	Boston Celtics	36.2	45.8	.441	2.91	0.68	-2.95	2-5	34-41	54-28	16-66	5.9%	0.1%			0.1	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.5	2.9		1.3	2.8	4.1	7.3		0.1%
14	Orlando Magic	34.0	48.0	.415	3.26	0.91	-4.37	2-6	32-42	51-31	19-63	2.2%						0.1	0.2	0.6	1.3		0.5	0.9	1.8	3.6
15	Detroit Pistons	32.3	49.7	.394	3.91	0.91	-7.09	1-5	31-45	49-33	18-64	0.8%	0.1%					0.1	0.1	0.2	0.5		0.2	0.4	0.8	1.8

Table
														Seed									Pre Play-In
Rk	Western Conference	W	L	W/L%	SOS	rSOS	SRS	Current	Remain	Best	Worst	Playoffs	Division	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8		7	8	9	10		Win Conf	Win Finals
1	Utah Jazz	52.4	29.6	.639	-3.08	-1.50	9.76	5-1	47-29	68-14	37-45	100.0%	90.7%	82.3	11.4	3.8	1.5	0.6	0.3	0.1			0.1	0.1				45.4%	20.0%
2	Golden State Warriors	44.6	37.4	.544	-6.39	-0.56	1.45	5-1	40-36	62-20	30-52	93.8%	69.9%	7.1	28.4	20.5	13.6	9.5	6.4	5.0	3.4		5.3	3.4	2.4	1.5		12.5%	3.4%
3	Denver Nuggets	43.1	38.9	.526	-1.72	-0.89	0.85	4-3	39-36	60-22	24-58	88.4%	4.8%	3.6	16.9	17.6	15.5	12.6	9.7	7.2	5.3		7.2	5.7	4.3	2.9		10.1%	2.5%
4	Portland Trail Blazers	42.3	39.7	.516	-0.95	-1.15	0.91	3-4	39-36	58-24	27-55	84.4%	4.0%	2.9	13.8	14.8	14.1	13.0	10.7	8.4	6.7		8.1	6.9	5.1	4.4		9.7%	2.5%
5	Memphis Grizzlies	41.7	40.3	.509	1.75	-1.30	-1.10	4-3	38-37	58-24	25-57	80.4%	56.2%	2.0	12.5	14.3	13.3	12.0	10.4	9.0	7.0		9.1	7.6	5.9	4.7		6.8%	1.5%
6	San Antonio Spurs	38.9	43.1	.474	-1.50	-1.12	-1.93	2-5	37-38	54-28	25-57	58.1%	24.4%	0.5	3.7	6.1	7.6	8.7	10.1	11.0	10.5		10.0	10.9	9.8	9.2		3.8%	0.7%
7	Sacramento Kings	38.7	43.3	.472	-1.06	-0.99	-3.89	3-3	36-40	57-25	23-59	55.7%	10.3%	0.5	3.2	5.4	7.2	8.7	10.5	10.0	10.3		9.7	10.8	10.8	9.8		2.6%	0.5%
8	Los Angeles Lakers	37.9	44.1	.462	-4.88	-0.68	-4.31	4-3	34-41	54-28	23-59	46.9%	7.3%	0.3	2.2	3.8	5.8	7.3	8.3	9.1	10.1		9.3	10.2	10.6	11.1		1.8%	0.4%

9	Minnesota Timberwolves	37.8	44.2	.461	-4.22	-0.51	-4.06	3-3	35-41	53-29	21-61	47.1%	0.5%	0.3	2.0	3.7	5.4	7.4	8.4	9.1	10.8		10.1	9.4	10.8	10.7		2.0%	0.4%
10	Los Angeles Clippers	38.1	43.9	.465	-2.11	-0.83	-2.94	2-4	36-40	54-28	24-58	50.3%	8.6%	0.2	2.6	4.3	6.3	7.4	8.9	10.2	10.3		9.9	10.2	11.1	10.4		2.7%	0.5%
11	Dallas Mavericks	37.4	44.6	.456	-1.66	-0.78	-6.32	4-2	33-43	54-28	23-59	42.0%	14.9%	0.2	1.9	3.3	5.1	6.1	8.0	8.2	9.2		8.9	9.2	10.3	10.9		1.0%	0.2%
12	Phoenix Suns	36.1	45.9	.440	-1.64	-0.76	-6.64	2-3	34-43	53-29	21-61	31.7%	3.9%	0.1	1.1	1.6	3.0	4.3	5.2	7.1	9.3		7.1	8.3	9.7	11.6		1.0%	0.2%
13	New Orleans Pelicans	34.2	47.8	.417	1.23	-1.00	-5.48	1-6	33-42	52-30	20-62	18.3%	4.2%		0.3	0.7	1.5	2.3	2.8	4.7	5.8		4.2	6.0	7.1	9.2		0.7%	0.1%
14	Houston Rockets	29.9	52.1	.364	-3.49	-0.44	-11.15	1-5	29-47	46-36	15-67	2.6%	0.4%				0.1	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.1		0.8	1.0	1.6	2.9
15	Oklahoma City Thunder	26.9	55.1	.328	0.10	-0.59	-13.05	1-6	26-49	42-40	13-69	0.5%						0.1		0.1	0.3		0.2	0.2	0.5	0.7